Friday, January 28, 2011

Sunday SAGs

Now that the Golden Globe sideshow circus has left town, maybe the Screen Actors Guild awards can give us an honest glimpse at who will take home the Oscar.

That isn’t to say that they haven’t been known to shy away from being the deciding factor in close races. In 2000, the Best Actor race was split between Tom Hanks (Cast Away) and Russell Crowe (Gladiator). The SAGs awarded Benico Del Toro (Traffic), who later won the Oscar for Supporting Actor.

Also, in 2003 Sean Penn (Mystic River) and Bill Murray (Lost in Translation) were in a dead heat, and they both lost to Johnny Depp for Pirates of the Caribbean.

In the past ten years, the SAG-Oscar correlation has matched up as follows:
Actor: 6 correct out of 10
Actress: 7 correct out of 10
Supporting Actor: 5 out of 10
Supporting Actress: 6 out of 10

So on Sunday, it’s all about the ladies. Can Natalie Portman keep riding her streak? And can Melissa Leo best her four worthy opponents? We shall see.

Jeff Bridges- True Grit
Robert Duvall- Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg- The Social Network
Colin Firth- The King's Speech
James Franco- 127 Hours

Should win: From this list, Firth. From a more accurate list, Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine).
Will win: Firth.
Franco is Firth's biggest competition. 
Annette Bening- The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman- Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence- Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman- Black Swan
Hilary Swank- Conviction

Should win: Portman
Will win: Tough call. Flip a coin. Tails. Portman.
I'm still a little confused why Swank is here.
Christian Bale- The Fighter
John Hawkes- Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner- The Town
Mark Ruffalo- The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush- The King's Speech

Should win: Bale.
Will win: Bale.
Don't worry, one day soon you'll actually win one of these.
Amy Adams- The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter- The King's Speech
Mila Kunis- Black Swan
Melissa Leo- The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld- True Grit

Should win: I’d be content with any of them. If I were voting, I suppose I’d go for Adams.
Will win: Leo… probably.
No Oscar nom for "Sweep Lips" :(
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network

Should win: Honestly, in terms of all around acting, I’d go with The Fighter (I mean those sisters…Jesus).
Will Win: The Fighter (or The King’s Speech).
Would you take them on?

The SAGs air Sunday at 8 p.m. on TNT and TBS. Click here for a full list of nominees.

For more OSCAR coverage, click here.

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