Tuesday, January 31, 2012

What the Guilds Tell Us

Now that the major Guild Awards have been handed out, we have as firm a grasp on who (and what) will win Oscars next month as we’re likely to get.

Sure, we still have the British-favored BAFTA awards, and the remarkably fun Indie Sprit Awards to get through, but those have little to no impact on who takes home Oscars.

By looking at who has won Guild Awards, we’re likely to see this year’s Oscar winners. Note: The Writer’s Guild Awards are on Feb. 21, which matter none to Oscar voters, as voting will have ceased by then.

Producers/Directors Guild
The Artist, and its director, Michel Hazanavicius, recently took home their respective Guild honors, and they are the clear front-runner for Best Picture and Best Director. I’ve heard talk of The Descendants stealing Picture, and Scorsese possibly nabbing Director, but expect the first silent film nominated in 82 years to take home top honors.

Screen Actors Guild
Best Actor
Up until Sunday night, George Clooney seemed like a lock for his emotionally effective work in The Descendants, but with stateside newcomer Jean Dujardin winning the SAG for The Artist, I think he is currently ahead. Is it possible for voters to write-in potential winners? If so, I’d like to champion a Fassbender steal.

Best Actress
Don’t pay attention to the Golden Globes, Viola Davis is going to receive one of the longest Oscar standing ovations in years once her name is called as the winner of Best Actress.

Best Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer. Next.

Best Supporting Actress
Of the major categories, this is always the hardest to handicap. Marisa Tomei beat Vanessa Redgrave, Anna Paquin trumped Holly Hunter, Juliette Binoche stunned Lauren Bacall, Kim Basinger beat Gloria Stuart; Marcia Gay Harden, Tilda Swinton – all genuine surprises. No matter, expect Octavia Spencer to win this as expected, unless Bérénice Bejo rides The Artist’s hype, or Melissa McCarthy reminds voters that it’s okay to give out awards for funny performances.

Best Original Screenplay
This is will be the quickest speech of the night, as Woody Allen won’t be there to accept his award.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Aaron Sorkin is favored for a repeat win for his work on Moneyball with Steven Zaillian (who won for writing Schindler’s List). But I see Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash winning for their Descendants script. Either, or.

BAFTAs will air Feb. 12
Indie Spirit Awards, per usual, will air the night before the Oscars, on Feb. 25


  1. If Dujardin wins with his nomination I'd be very surprised. Happy, but surprised. I don't think that kind of thing happen often. And if Clooney wins I'm gonna be disappointed again, since he deserved that win so much more for his otheer movies. It would be awesome if Mara won, whenever I watch "The Help" as much as I admire Davis's work she isn't even the best in her movie.

  2. @Sati. I do think a Dujardin win would be rare in the Roberto Benigni kind of way, but I do see it happening. Mara has no shot, unless she pulls on Adrien Brody-like upset, with Streep and Davis splitting the vote (but if that did happen, I think Williams would win over Mara).

    They're gonna be god-awful boring and predictable. But, as always, I bank on a few surprises.