Thursday, December 16, 2010

SAG nominations: more accurate than the Globes?

Unlike the Golden Globes, the Screen Actor's Guild awards (along with the writer's, director's and producer's guild awards) have a far better track record at handicapping potential Oscar nominees and winners.

With that in mind, I am quite surprised at some of the actors on the SAG shortlist (No Wahlberg or DiCaprio, but... Hilary Swank?). Here's a breakdown of the SAGs major categories.

Best Cast
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network

Usually a good rule of thumb is that whatever film has the most nominations will end up winning this. So that'd be The Fighter or The King's Speech (who each have three). Overall, I'd chose The Social Network or Black Swan.
Some Social Network chums
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges- True Grit
Robert Duvall- Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg- The Social Network
Colin Firth- The King's Speech
James Franco- 127 Hours

Mark Wahlberg is the big exclusion here, having been bumped out by the surprising inclusion of Robert Duvall, who gave a subtly brilliant performance in the little-seen Get Low.  Also thought I'd see Leonardo DiCaprio for either Shutter Island or Inception. No matter, it's Firth's to lose either way.
Duvall in Get Low
Best Actress
Annette Bening- The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman- Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence- Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman- Black Swan
Hilary Swank- Conviction

Swank? Really? What about Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine, or Julianne Moore for Kids Are All Right? My vote is, of course, for Portman, but I'm telling you, watch out for Lawrence, she could sneak away with it.

Portman in Black Swan
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale- The Fighter
John Hawkes- Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner- The Town
Mark Ruffalo- The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush- The King's Speech

Love seeing Hawkes here, but I'm all about Bale. Ruffalo is a worthy surprise, although I would've gone with Justin Timberlake or Andrew Garfield from The Social Network.
Hawkes in Winter's Bone
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams- The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter- The King's Speech
Mila Kunis- Black Swan
Melissa Leo- The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld- True Grit

Props to 14-year-old Steinfeld, but it's Leo's to lose. Too bad Kunis' performance is too understated for most voters, her work in Black Swan was devilishly captivating.  
Kunis in Black Swan
For all the nominee's, including those in television, click here.

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