Sunday, February 26, 2012

Here’s Who’s Going to Win Oscars This Evening

How does one write about this year’s Oscars without bitching and moaning?  For those of you who love The Artist (and there are many of you who love The Artist, rightfully so), I imagine it’s still a little disheartening to know the damn near foregone conclusions of every major category, right?

Look, I love the Oscars. They are my Super Bowl, Final Four, World Cup, World Series and more rolled all into one. I love them so much, in fact, that my parents always let me skip the Monday after the show when I was in school, as a way to let me come down from the highs of my excitement. (This came in particularly handy when, for instance, Shakespeare in Love bought Best Picture from Saving Private Ryan, which infuriated me for days.) But last year, the Oscars did something to me.

For four hours last February, I sat completely unmoved and utterly bored. I wanted Christian Bale to win, I wanted Natalie Portman to win, but the fact that we all knew they were going to win, well, it just kind of took the piss out of the whole thing.

Okay, that’s enough, let’s try to have a happy day. Below are my picks for who will win tonight’s major awards (I’m not listing every category here, because I put in bets in Vegas, and listing the entirety of my choices could jinx me in some way. True story.) Also, I’ve listed my personal choices for winners and possible upsets, which, for the record, aren’t going to happen.

Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
Midnight in Paris
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Will Win: The Artist
Could Win: The Help (may God have mercy on our souls)
Want to Win: The Tree of Life

Best Director
Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist
Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life
Alexander Payne – The Descendants
Martin Scorsese – Hugo
Will Win: Hazanavicius
Could Win: None
Want to Win: Malick

Best Actor
Demián Bichir – A Better Life
George Clooney – The Descendants
Jean Dujardin – The Artist
Gary Oldman – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt – Moneyball
Will Win: Dujardin
Could Win: Clooney
Want to Win: Pitt

Best Actress
Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis – The Help
Rooney Mara – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn
Will Win: Davis
Could Win: Streep
Want to Win: Mara

Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh – My Week With Marilyn
Jonah Hill – Moneyball
Nick Nolte – Warrior
Christopher Plummer – Beginners
Max Von Sydow – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Will Win: Plummer
Could Win: None
Want to Win: Nolte

Best Supporting Actress
Bérénice Bejo – The Artist
Jessica Chastain – The Help
Melissa McCarthy – Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer – Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer – The Help
Will Win: Spencer
Could Win: Bejo
Want to Win: McCarthy

Best Original Screenplay
Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris
J.C. Chandor – Margin Call
Michel Hazanivicius – The Artist
Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig – Bridesmaids
Asghar Farhadi – A Separation
Will Win: toughest category to call… Allen
Could Win: Hazanivicius
Want to Win: Farhadi

Best Adapted Screenplay
George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon – The Ides of March
John Logan – Hugo
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon & Jim Rash – The Descendants
Aaron Sorkin & Steven Zaillian – Moneyball
Peter Straughan & Bridget O’Connor – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Will Win: Payne, Faxon & Rash
Could Win: None
Want to Win: Logan

Best Cinematography
Jeff Cronenweth – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Janusz Kaminski – War Horse
Emmanuel Lubezki – The Tree of Life
Robert Richardson – Hugo
Guillaume Schiffman – The Aritst
Will Win: I think they’re going to rob Lubezki and go with Richardson
Could Win: Lubezki
Want to Win: Lubezki (more than anything)

Best Documentary Feature
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls
Paradise Lost 3

Will Win: Paradise Lost 3
Could Win: Hell and Back Again
Want to Win: Paradise Lost 3

Best Foreign Film
In Darkness
Monsieur Lazhar
A Separation

Will Win: A Separation
Could Win: In Darkness
Want to Win: A Separation

Best Score
Ludovic Bource – The Artist
Alberto Iglesias – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Howard Shore – Hugo
John Williams – War Horse
John Williams – The Adventures of Tintin

Will Win: Bource
Could Win: Shore
Should Win: Bource


  1. I really hope The Best Original Screenplay goes to Allen or A separation, and not The Artist! That's all I ask....and maybe an Oscar for Clooney or Pitt? that would be nice- and with these two, my night would be perfect! I am fine with the other categories, I just don't want The Artist getting almost everything!

  2. I'll be gobsmacked if they go with The Artist for Best Cinematography! I think it's got Lubezki's name all over it and the odds are in his favour too! I reckon the only shot Moneyball has at anything is the adapted screenplay one! Not long till we find out!

  3. @Aziza Yeah me either, it was a good movie, but I don't think it deserves a sweep. My gut tells me Woody will take it, but I don't see Dujardin losing.

  4. @Pete Christ I hope you're right about cinematography, it is seriously the award I'm looking most forward to.

  5. Natalie Portman said in intro she was glad B Crystal was hosting so the show wouldn't be mean-spirited, but for me Bill C was surprising rude,especially towards N Nolte(who took the growling with a smile fortunately).
    My fav parts were the segments intercut, stars mentioning their first movie watched, and what makes a great film. Fav on-stage moment for me Emma Stone/Ben stiller(he or tom hanks could easily be host next) Zach G and Will Ferrell were pretty funny, too.

  6. @Chris Wow, I literally agree with everything you said. I didn't care for the actors describing their favorite films until Downey Jr. said Herzog would be best to answer that, and they jump cut to Herzog. That was great.

    I saw Portman's pre-show comments about Crystal too, and I honestly think that because you're a little older and "kinder" that it is acceptable to publicly insult people. Stupid. Oh well.

    I think Hanks would make an excellent host.

  7. Dude. Richardson. Gobsmacked to hear Lubezki was overlooked. Also I was surprised that Hugo won visual effects too. I was sure it was going to sweep, but then the awards dried up. Really, did it deserve all of them? So glad that Dragon Tat picked up an award. Often it is the winner of editing that goes on to win Best Picture. Still can't believe it was overlooked. Can't argue with Dujardin. Meryl on the other hand. A pretty dull and predictable ceremony

  8. @Andy Buckle I didn't have a problem with any of Hugo's awards except cinematography, which was ridiculous in my opinion. I agree that Editing is usually an early indicator of Best Picture, but that's kind of been changing lately (Bourne Ultimatum beat No Country and TTBB, etc.) At any rate, yeah, pretty dull and predictable.